Column
EconoVision column
South Sudan, a new beginning
Pictures in the media showed Salva Kiir, president of the new African state of South Sudan, looking relaxed amidst his jubilant fellow countrymen celebrating the countries’ independence on 9 July in the southern capital Juba. This cheerful image contrasted strongly with the gloomy mood here in Juba on 6 August 2005. On that day John Garang was buried after he had died in a helicopter crash.
Garang, the brilliant and charismatic leader of the southern liberation movement SPLM, was the architect of the comprehensive peace agreement with the central government in Khartoum, signed in January 2005. His death, eight months later, caused a tremendous outpour of grief. Without Garang, so it was feared, the South would be no match for the North in the continuous bickering over the implementation of the peace agreement given the many issues that had remained unsolved (division of oil income, borders et cetera).
Garang had been the tireless campaigner for a new and united Sudan on the basis of the ‘one country, two systems’ model. With his death this ideal very soon lost its appeal. Salva Kiir, his successor, understood quite well that unity with the North held little appeal for most of the southern population after decades of northern oppression. Despite the peace agreement the northerners were not prepared to give the southerners a real voice in the administration of the country.
Six years have passed since John Garang’s death. The proclamation of the Republic of South Sudan and the preceding referendum in the South went smoother than expected. The North did not go back to war over South Sudan’s independence as many had feared. The joy about independence cannot hide the fact however that South Sudan is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world.
It scores low on most of the social indicators (more than 70 percent of the population is illiterate, 10 percent of the children dies before the age of five, 80 percent of the population lives in huts). Administrative capacity is limited and infrastructure is either absent or poorly developed. For its national income the country is almost totally dependent on the oil production. The sustainability of the oil income is questionable as sources become depleted and new discoveries of oil deposits do not occur. South Sudan is a tribal society in which the two main tribes, the Nuer and the Dinka, have been in conflict for centuries. Most of the population is kept alive with international humanitarian assistance.
Still, the country has considerable economic potential. Its natural resources and environment lend itself very well for an export oriented agriculture. Mechanization and development of transport infrastructure are essential for achieving this. Mining, logging and tourism (wildlife) are promising sectors as well. In order to unlock this potential South Sudan will have to rely for years to come on the assistance of the international donor community. The international private sector will also have plenty of opportunities to contribute to the economic development of this country.
A precondition for a successful development of South Sudan’s economic resources is political stability. Armed tribal conflict and military skirmishes in border regions with the North flare up occasionally. The SPLM’s exclusive hold on political power might give rise to more tribal conflict. It will probably take years of negotiations with the North before definitive borders and a division of oil income will be agreed upon. With the independence of South Sudan a new Nile state has come into existence which might tilt the precarious balance between the countries directly involved in the issue of the Nile water and its distribution among them. Egypt and (North) Sudan, the biggest beneficiaries under the Nile treaties dating back from colonial times, are obviously worried that South Sudan will choose the side of the upstream countries who, for years, have been clamoring for a bigger share in the use of Nile water.
The international community is at this stage still favorably inclined towards South Sudan and will do its utmost to help ensure a peaceful settlement of outstanding issues between the South and the North. The economic problems and potential in both Sudans are comparable, so both have similar opportunities. Both countries depend on each other for the oil production and export.
Clearly, for South Sudan and Sudan the best option, politically and economically, is to stay closely aligned.
Archief
- Cutting deficits is an artlees column
- South Sudan, a new beginninglees column